With the ongoing government shutdown, many federal agencies, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, have paused data releases. While this limits access to several of the metrics we typically review, institutional and private-sector sources still offer valuable insights.
At Finley Davis Private Wealth, we continue to monitor leading research, including the most recent RiskBridge CIO Chartbook, to help business owners stay informed about evolving market conditions. Below are five indicators that provide perspective on where the economy may be heading as we close out the year.
Growth Outlook Remains Moderate
Key Market Indicator
According to RiskBridge, U.S. real GDP growth is expected at approximately 1.5 percent in 2025 and 1.8 percent in 2026, with nominal GDP averaging near 4.5 percent over the next two years.
Why It Matters
This level of growth suggests a soft but continuing expansion, enough to sustain business activity while keeping inflation pressures manageable. Business owners may want to maintain flexibility in budgeting and capital allocation as growth steadies but does not accelerate.
Inflation is Holding Steady at 3%
Key Market Indicator
Core CPI remains at 3.0 percent year-over-year, with goods inflation flat and services inflation slightly lower at 2.1 percent.
Why It Matters
Price pressures appear stable, and tariff-related inflation is expected to fade in 2026. This environment may help firms plan costs with more predictability, even as consumer spending remains mixed
The Fed is Expected to Cute Rates Twice in 2026
Key Market Indicator
Market futures imply two 25-basis-point rate cuts within the next 12 months as the Fed balances slower growth and labor-market softness.
Why It Matters
A gradual easing cycle could support borrowing and investment activity. Companies considering refinancing or expansion projects may find conditions more favorable in the year ahead.
Liquidity Pressures Show Mild Stain But No Crisis
Key Market Indicator
The RiskBridge Global Liquidity Index remains negative but improving; funding markets such as SOFR and commercial paper show temporary stress linked to the shutdown.
Why It Matters
According to RiskBridge, the overall financial system continues to function smoothly despite near-term strain. Businesses may benefit from reviewing credit lines and maintaining a healthy liquidity position to stay prepared for temporary disruptions.
Corporate Earnings Continue to Support Equity Markets
Key Market Indicator
With 64 percent of the S&P 500 reporting Q3 results, revenues are up 8.2 percent and earnings up 11.1 percent. RiskBridge’s 2026 S&P 500 earnings forecast is $305 per share, implying a target range of 6,100 to 7,500 on the index.
Why It Matters
Corporate profitability remains a key source of resilience. Stable earnings help anchor valuation levels and business confidence, even as economic data temporarily stall.
Actionable Takeaways
- Maintain Liquidity Flexibility
Short-term funding pressures can surface when markets lack government data for guidance. Keeping accessible reserves or credit lines may help your business manage unforeseen expenses or take advantage of opportunities as conditions shift. - Reassess Capital PlanningIf interest rates trend lower, refinancing or restructuring debt could improve balance-sheet efficiency. Business owners may benefit from reviewing borrowing costs in advance of potential Federal Reserve action.
- Watch Consumer Indicators Closely
Private data sources such as the Redbook Retail Sales Index suggest consumer spending remains steady. However, RiskBridge cautions that sector performance may diverge, making it important to monitor regional and industry trends closely. - Strengthen Operational Efficiency
Moderate GDP growth favors businesses that can maintain disciplined operations. Evaluating cost structures, improving supply chain efficiency, and optimizing inventory levels can help sustain margins through slower growth cycles. - Stay Selective and Strategic with Risk
Equity markets remain supported by earnings momentum, but valuations may be elevated. Staying diversified and selective in investment and expansion decisions may help manage exposure if volatility returns later in the cycle.
At Finley Davis Private Wealth, we understand that business owners must make decisions with imperfect information, especially in times when federal data is delayed or incomplete. Our role is to help you interpret what the available indicators suggest, connect them to your business realities, and evaluate opportunities through both financial and operational lenses. Whether assessing liquidity needs, exploring expansion plans, or navigating shifts in policy, our team helps to provide clarity and coordination across every aspect of your financial picture.