You won’t want to miss this month’s video briefing from Bill Kennedy, CIO of RiskBridge, where he shares timely insights on the economy, interest rates, and market positioning. The latest CIO Chartbook is also now available, offering a deeper dive into the data and developments shaping today’s investment landscape.
While the full report provides detailed analysis, we’ve highlighted a few key themes below to help you quickly grasp what may matter most.
HIGHLIGHTS
Economic slowdown, not a recession
In our view, the four major drivers of the business cycle: production, labor, income, and consumption, are decelerating. However, strong household balance sheets are helping to keep the economy on track.
Interest rate cuts expected soon
After a sharp downward revision in job numbers, market expectations point to a likely Fed rate cut in September. A larger cut is possible if labor data remains weak.
Volatility ticks up, but markets remain orderly
The VIX spiked after recent surprises in earnings and employment data. Despite this, asset class correlations remain in line, and diversification through bonds and international equities continues to be effective in our view.
International equities present opportunity
With lower valuations and competitive earnings growth, RiskBridge continues to favor international stocks over U.S. equities.
Policy risk and inflation concerns continue
Tariffs, labor constraints, and political turnover are creating headwinds. Potential fiscal stimulus and deregulation could help offset some of that pressure heading into Q4.
What This Means for You
At Finley Davis, we’re paying close attention to what’s unfolding beneath the surface, whether it’s the shifting outlook for rate cuts, the early signs of tariff-driven inflation, or emerging opportunities in international markets. These dynamics may not call for abrupt changes, but they do require thoughtful positioning.
We’re here to help you stay aligned with your long-term goals, even as the environment evolves. As always, we’re here if you’d like to discuss any specific developments or just want to stay informed.
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The opinions / strategies above are for general information only, are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual and may not reflect those of Lion Street Financial LLC. Diversification does not guarantee profit or protect against loss. Investing internationally carries additional risks such as differences in financial reporting, currency exchange risk, as well as economic and political risk unique to the specific country. This may result in greater share price volatility. Shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Personnel of Risk Bridge Advisors, LLC (“RiskBridge”) prepared this material. The views expressed herein do not constitute research, investment advice, or trade recommendations. RiskBridge may, from time to time, participate or invest in transactions with issuers of securities that participate in the markets referred to herein, perform services for or solicit business from such issuers, and/or have a position or effect transactions in the securities or derivatives thereof.
This material is distributed for informational purposes only. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed, and RiskBridge makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Any opinions, recommendations, and assumptions included in this material are based upon current market conditions, reflect the judgment of RiskBridge as of the date indicated, and are subject to change without notice. You acknowledge and agree that RiskBridge is not obligated to provide any additional information or update such information in making the information available. Securities and/or indices highlighted or discussed in this communication are mentioned for illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as investment recommendations. All investments involve risk, including the loss of principal. Before implementing any strategy, consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional. This information is not intended to provide investment, tax, or legal advice, and this material is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. This material is not to be reproduced, in whole or part, without the written consent of RiskBridge.
S&P500® Index is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 of the largest U.S. companies, designed to measure broad U.S. equity performance. Clients cannot invest directly in an index. Investing internationally carries additional risks such as differences in financial reporting, currency exchange risk, as well as economic and political risk unique to the specific country. This may result in greater share price volatility. Shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost.